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Premier Ford will be giving Ontarians $200 each in a suspected pre-election bet. Although the next election isn’t planned until 2026, with the string of recent campaign style announcements, it is starting to look like Ford is gearing up for a snap election this coming spring.
On October 30, Minister of Finance Peter Bethlenfalvy declared that the Ontario budget was in a $6.6 billion deficit, which, according to the projected 2024 budget, is a $3.2 billion improvement. Against this backdrop, some 12.5 million adults and the parents of 2.5 million children should receive $200 tax-free cheques in the new year.
For anyone keeping up with the math, these $200 cheques actually wipe out this supposed improvement and put Ontario nearly $10 billion in debt. And while a welcome bonus, the gimmicky stunt seems to be about something else.
Buying votes with pre-election payouts isn’t a typical campaign strategy, but it has happened before. In 2000, Ontario’s Mike Harris government issued $200 “dividend” cheques after a surplus was announced. In late 2013, Doug Ford himself was filmed handing out 20-dollar bills at a public housing block in Toronto ahead of his and his brother's municipal election campaigns. More recently, François Legault and Jason Kenney have been accused of buying votes after rebates were paid out before provincial elections.
But there's a difference: Ontario doesn’t have a surplus. Under Ford, the deficit has ballooned to a surprising $9.8 billion deficit, and the $200 cheques are going to cost over $3 billion. Last year, Bethlenfalvy had actually projected a $200-million surplus, but quickly revised the numbers to cover the $10 billion error.
So what's with the cheques? Ford might be looking to distract constituents as ongoing controversies begin to catch up to the Premier. Last month, it was reported that at least eight of Ford's top aides have been interviewed by the RCMP in an ongoing investigation into Ford’s Greenbelt scandal.
A scathing report last year by Ontario’s then Auditor General Bonnie Lysyk triggered a crisis where several MPPs and staff resigned. It was found that Ford and his staff had assisted developers in choosing land that would best suit their needs, to the tune of $8 billion in profits.
Not to mention, Ford also recently increased the salaries of several of his MPPs. This resulted in 48 out of 80 of his staff now being on the Sunshine list, a database which tracks Ontario public service workers making over $100,000 per year.
A quick election when the polls are in his favour might be Ford’s best bet. Although under Ontario’s elections laws, minority governments are supposed to serve a four-year term before an election, Ford might just ignore the law. With the Conservatives leading the latest polls by 41%, this could be a snap election win before any more bad news.